Clear-air turbulence trends over the North Atlantic in high-resolution climate models

Abstract Clear-air turbulence (CAT) has a large impact on the aviation sector. Our current understanding of how CAT may increase with climate change in future is largely based simulations from CMIP3 and CMIP5 global models (GCMs). However, these have now been superseded by high-resolution CMIP6 GCMs, which for first time grid lengths at individual patches start to be resolved. Here we use multi-model approach quantify projected moderate changes over North Atlantic using models. The influence model resolution projections analysed. Twenty-one diagnostics are used, order represent uncertainties production mechanisms. Each diagnostic responds differently time, but majority display an between 1950 2050. Although winter historically most turbulent season, there strong agreement that autumn summer will greatest overall relative frequency. By 2050, summers become as winters autumns. global-mean seasonal near-surface temperature used comparative metric. For every 1 °C warming, autumn, winter, spring, average 14%, 9%, 14% more CAT, respectively. results confirm sector should prepare future.